"any other stock if somone was trying to give me a $10 sp prediction on a 13center i would probs think they are smoking just as much crack as jerry01"
I know, it kinda sounds like a fantasy, but as I said there is a lot of stuff that will need to happen for that $10 valuation.
First is shares on issue. The lower the SOI, the better, which is why I am against what I consider "vanity raises" to increase the resource size for no material impact.
Second is the new mining code and licence has been approved without issues
Third is we do not need to do a DFS
Fourth is we get a off take with some sort of pre-payment / strategic investment and minimal dilution
Fifth is resource a) we have "at least" 10mt of measured / indicated DSO at Bekisopa (including the outcropping material that can't be measured / included in the resource estimate) b) we have "at least 15mt of measured / indicated DSO at Satrokala (Note: Satrokala is a much larger resource, so my expectation is for a bigger DSO resource, but across a larger geographic area). c) We have at least 25mt of DSO across Bekisopa and Satrokala - this would give us at least 10 years of DSO production with very high margins. c) we have "at least" 35mt of measured / indicated Green steel in the Bekisopa Southern Zone (it has been proven up, but is currently inferred) d) we have defined a maiden "non DSO" resource for Satrokala that is at least 200mt (giving us a total resource of 500mt or "half a billion tonnes")
Sixth is for the DSO starter we have a Capex of about $80m - $100m, an Opex of around $45 USD/t, and a 62% IO price around $135/t at the time we are producing our first ore, which should mean pay back will be 15 - 18 months instead of 25 months (as per the scoping study AND with Lump and Grade premiums of about $15/t for a realised price of $150/t).
Seventh is in year 2 (approx 1.5mt per year), the company pays a small dividend to shareholders AND the company is debt free
Eight is I would expect we are producing 2mt per year, be debt free and making free cash flows of $170mUSD or $260m AUD ($130t @ 62% - $45/t costs = $85/t margin. 2,000,000t X $85 USD = $170m.
Ninth is a year 3 dividend of $0.50c. Given I expect we have about 160m shares on issue, this would mean $80m paid back to share holders, which would mean the company could have close to $150m - $200m in the bank.
Tenth is the company has a clear set of plans for expansion beyond 2mtpa. - Self sufficient expansion from cashflows (no more dilution) confirmed - 5mt to 10mt ore transport to port solution being explored / designed etc (slurry pipeline given it is downhill?) - drilling out and proving up more resources (as I said, a total of 25mt of DSO, 35 - 50mt of indicated Green Steel and 350+mt for approx 500mt - or more - of total resource with a WHOLE HEAP of upside at both Bekisopa and Satrokala - Potentially start drilling Tratramarina
I am sure there is other stuff, and there is a lot that needs to happen, but if we can have sub 200m shares (and closer to 150m shares would be ideal), then I think this is feasible.
Anyways, I would love to be retired in 8 years, but let's see.
(20min delay)