Any shortfall in China's domestic IO production will easily be...

Any shortfall in China's domestic IO production will easily be filled by RIO, BHP, Vale and later RH. IO prices are more likely to drop than to rise within the next three years. All that FMG can do is to kick the can down the road. Just a matter of time before the FMG house of cards implodes. IO price downside is more probable than price upside. Also suspect that a big revelation on costs coming about the end of 2015, which may be the final catalyst, together with an IO price of mid fifties.

Back from my trip and good to see that FMG still sliding, not that there was any significant risk that it would have a significant rally. Too bad nobody listened. The remaining half of my short (@269, closed half at 247, hint - risk management ) is looking good and I must admit to a desire to TP, although I'll stay with the plan. See you all at sub 200, coming soon.

PS another free tip, even though none deserve it - any rally is an exit (ie selling) opportunity.