I view my investment in FLN as longer term and strategic, though I do trade a portion in and out.
From holding for several years, I observe that the business is run with fairly tight controls on expenses, and a typical quarter will be a immaterial loss, or immaterial profit, as management reinvest profits for growth.I think the current focus on corporate work may shift this a bit. They appear to be taking up front payments to build custom versions of the marketplace for major partners (Deloitte, Arrow) so we might see more revenue booked earlier. I think this also explains some jumps in user numbers.
I think the market looks at FLN quite superficially. If this results in a net profit the price will go up (potentially substantially). If the same income is redeployed to new investments in growth, the market is unimpressed.
I can understand why this is the case. The hope is at some point the profits will grow to a point that they exceed the investment needed for growth and can begin to be returned to investors. This has happened with plenty of other Internet businesses, so seems likely.
The market wants to be on board this stock from that day forward, so we can see moves like a 20% gain a couple of quarters ago on a profit announcement.But the market doesn't want any part of the early growth costs for FLN, ranking it as dead money until the tipping point is reached. This could be a problem, as the scale of the opportunity is so large, it may demand further growth investment for years to come. This is the path Amazon has followed, and investors there were ultimately well rewarded.
So I think we shall see a trading range between here and around a dollar, until we get a few quarters of growing profits.
If this upcoming quarterly is the first in that series, now would be a superb time to buy.
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2 | 61317 | 0.170 |
1 | 10000 | 0.165 |
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1 | 18756 | 0.155 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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