The share price has suffered considerable damage over the last year and yet, as far as I am concerned, the Co-O mine is now in much better shape and improvements are still ongoing. So frankly, the fall looks completely irrational.
If I believed that things were worse I would have sold out, as I would with any of my other investments. But, as it is, I think the market has completely under-valued the stock and thus the potential upside is now far greater.
I look for under-valuations as a matter of course and stick with my own estimations of forward value as an investor with a 3-5 year forward view as to eventual returns. If I see a change in underlying fundamentals then I need to act, but I certainly don't use current movements in market price as any sort of guide - but only as a yardstick for possible capital gain.
There can be little doubt that the very heavy shorting of MML stock from July to December 2014 contributed to it's sharp decline (as did a number of other goldies on the ASX). Yet this heavy selling pressure was at odds with clear improvements quarter-on-quarter. Presumably, the wider turmoil on the gold futures markets also played a significant role - and little has changed in that regard up to the present time!
Counter to your own opinion on further Reserves/Resources still remaining within Co-O. I certainly have an opposite opinion. It would indeed be remarkable for an epithermal system to NOT have further mineralisation below the current 350m depth.
As for the fundamentals at Co-O over the next few quarters:
- ore haul tonnage has been constrained by waste from the mine improvement program. This situation is finite and early completion of these various areas will allow ore tonnage to increase with consequent improvement to production.
- The grade has been improving qtr by qtr due to the change in contractual pricing regarding stope draw-down. As ever more new stopes commence under these new arrangements head grade should further improve, ie higher production.
- The new service shaft will still take another 4 quarters to complete, but will then allow far greater efficiency in the haulage of both labour and ore. MML estimates that this work adds c. US$80/oz to the AISC. But with all the current estimated resource of 1400koz sitting at Level 8 and above this would appear to be well worth the investment.
Current share pricing makes no sense (to me) in terms of any of the financial metrics, so I will just keep backing my own opinion - as, I'm sure, you will too!
CPDLC
MML Price at posting:
45.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)