I understand your thesis... Your tobacco, coal, oil & other defensives are for me Rice, soybean and a lot of coffee. In fact I have rode around various parts of the Bean belt which is 25 degrees north of the equator and 30 degrees south of it. So closet to my part of the world was Indonesia where I have secured yields from the farms themselves and bought everything I could of the Luwak kopi variety in the hope the Luwaks kept shitting and taking advantage of the rain falls. As of last week metricated consumption is 500,000,000 cups a year as apposed to 250,000,000 only 10 years ago.
With .75 basis in a row heading for its say 4.2% with its 8 month lags for good measure, so im banking on maybe one more .75 or .50 in November then a .25. So thats still going to be 4% for the sake of our discussion, that is monumental compared to where they were just 6 months ago. And that there will be pain enough. Assumptions of course. Pivot is sentiment and we could talk all day about where and when a buy-in is good bad or indifferent. For me I am finding it hard to find space for my hard commodities which prompted me to look further into this without outlaying millions in building storage myself. I looked at all REITS on a world stage and I think Australia have some of the best in the world...& Goodman is where all my numbers stack in at. So if the US sits at and they have hinted at 4.2% months ago, the rest of the world possibly not far off that which nominal M1 & M2 means test that would have been equivalent in 1989, as debts were a problem then as now when nominal rates were 17 per cent and inflation was 8 per cent, real rates were around 9 per cent. Or more debt to be adjusted to from todays case scenario. So I would say we are about to pivot & the RBA was the first to go before the FED even though we are nowhere near what they have got to deal with.
Yes GMG is still expensive but it has fallen very heavy from $26.97 I think I saw it at, might be wrong to a low of $15.75 lets say. So that 22.65% YoY, 9.21 PE, 1.82% Div yield, take out capex + YoY annual growth & residual thats now going to be a 4.82% Div yield. Pinning the tail on the donkey. how ever this is based on Greg and his comments of divs & buybacks around the corner. Not to sure how long the corner will be but he will disclose in due course I suspect.
Thank you for your feed back, you always bring food for thought. E Pluribus unum
GMG Price at posting:
$16.46 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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