Hi Everyone. Given the lack of any meaningful updates from Management I am offering the following for comment re likely net revenue produced from Pit 1 in first year. The figure I came up with is US$20.83 million. CAPEX loan commitments will have to be provided or paid from this.
I derived this figure mainly from info in last report. However, I have not used the reported Cash Cost per ounce as I believe it is a little misleading. I prefer to use the AISC (All in Sustainable Cost) and as I have not got a figure for BSR I have chosen to use the Average Figure for all West African gold miners of US$918 as reported by CSA Global in their March 2018 quarterly report. I did ask Alex about BSR's likely ASIC back at the 2017 AGM and all he told me was that these other costs would be minimal. You can make what you like from that response.
Likely Annual Gold Production Ounces (300,000ktpa X 7.5g/t / 31.1035 g/ounce) = 72,339 ounces (72,339 X .95% Rec. Rate)= 68722 ounces
Current Gold Price (US$1,292p/ounce X 94.5%9 Adjusted 5.5% for Royalty etc) = US$1,221
Likely Annual ASIC (US$918p/ounce X 68,722 ounces) = US$ 918
Likely Net Revenue per Ounce (US$1,221 -US$918) = US$ 303
Likely Net Revenue Gold Sales 1st Year (US$303 X 68,722 ounces) = US$ 20.83 Million
Likely Avg. Net Revenue per Month = US$ 1.74 Million
Based on previous releases by Management I believe tax will not have to be considered. From my understanding other than the repayment of the CAPEX finance commitments, the balance left belongs to BSR being repayment of previously expended exploration expenses etc. This likely net revenue amount will decrease each due to the lower g/t in the other pits. For those that are interested my potential gold production in ounces at a 95% recovery rate if the mining occurs in line with the Pit numbers 1,2,3 4 etc is Year 2 - 55,742. Year 3 - 36,160 Year 4- 15,870 ounces. This is very close to the 171,000 ounces as predicted.
There are only 2 items that I have some doubt about in the above, the first be what the real AISC will turn out to be and 2. the 300,000ktps processing rate used for raw dirt. Is this the optimal possible production rate. Could it be effected by the rainy season,breakdowns, general maintenance etc.
I believe first full gold production is still some months away, maybe December or January 2020. What I can gather management and their consultants are still in the planning stage-being Stage 1 the 4 pits that I believe were fist mentioned in 2012 followed by a number of feasibility studies the last being the bankable feasibility study released in December 2017 if you can recall. I do not believe any production will occur until the new equipment has arrived especially the Carbon in Leach (CIL) processing unit which will be added to the existing plant in order to achieve the 95% percent recovery rate. Why would they start processing any raw dirt at a lower recovery rate? Also, as state again in the fine print of the last report the pre-development work allows for 4 months of mining to build an adequate ROM (raw dirt) stockpile prior to any gold production. As they are still in the process of engaging mining contractors, I believe work on this stockpile has not yet commenced and if this stock pile has to be crushed raw dirt it probably will not until the equipment arrives and commissioned. Added to my concerns is that we are now heading into the Rainy Season which I am certain will slow activities down a bit. I could be wrong, I admit do not really know a lot about gold mining other than with a pan, but not likely. I am concerned not being party to an information to the contrary, that the long it takes to get into production the hard it will be to meet the 18 month repayment term of the Coris bank finance some US12.2 million which I believe will fall due on the 30/6/2020, especially if my calculation of avg net revenue of US$1.74 million per month is correct.
For those intending to attend this years AGM our Chairman maybe able to enlighten you further. I personally will not be going, I have better things to do with my time and little money I have that is not tied up in BSR and frankly if I did attend I would definitely be saying something I most likely would regret with those it was aimed at only treating it like water of a ducks back anyway.So what would be the point. I still recall our Chairman's previous predictions regarding first gold production. At the 2017 AGM it was early 2018, last year as posted recently here it was early 2019 so this year I guess it will be early 2020 and some of us are still wondering why the SP has flat lined for so long. I personally, am still having major problems with the majority of previous statements made by our Chairman when reconciling them with actual events. Especially, in respect what he did know given his previous experience or in his position, what he should have known at the time of making them. But that is for another day.
If I did attend the AGM, Depending on BSR's SP at that time, I would ask that a motion be put the meeting that the Directors' performance bonuses agreed to at the 2017 AGM be recinded. I do not believe that loyal shareholders who invested more capital into BSR to help out in December 2017 and partook in the Rights issue should be the only losers when these rights do not reach the take up price of 3.4 cents, which at this time is highly likely. Management set this price presumably as a result of what they believed they could achieve during that 21 months. Clearly, they are unlikely to achieve it and this result quite accurately is a reflection of their management performance during this time frame.
Secondly, I would move a motion that the Contingent Tax Liability of A$17.9 million confirmation of which was received in November 2015 by the BSR subsidiary Bassari Resources Senegal SAR be resolved with responsible Senegalese government agency and be removed from future BSR half yearly and end of year Financial Statements. The fact that this issue has not been resolved in one way or another after some 3 1/2 years should be concerning to all shareholders. It highlights a possible chink in BSR's financial viability and would definitely be a deterrent to any astute investor looking to invest in BSR. What it portrays regarding BSR's past,present and future relationship with the Senegal Government is also a concern. I would request that the issue be settled prior to 31/12/2019. I believe Management are of the opinion that this issue is really not an urgent matter, but when it appears in your publicly reported Financial Statements year after year I find it hard to agree with that view. Given, the inaction by both parties to date on the issue, I only hope that no deal has been done between the parties for some future settlement. Maybe tax collection is different in Senegal as opposed to Australia where the agency responsible will let you owe assessed taxes for years - no problem.
Finally. I like many other shareholders have no idea when first full gold production is definitely going to commence. I am fairly certain it will happen before 31/5/2020, that being the expiry date for the first Directors bonus to mature and at this point of time the SP only has to get to 3.06 cents to achieve it. Lets all hope something more substantial occurs before then. With $160,000.00 on the line, I definitely do.
Good Luck to all those attending the AGM
The Fairytale Continues
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