After listening to the call, it sounds very much like they still expect to get towards their target of ebita of 192-200mil (ex vision x) in the next 12 months or so, at least on a runrate basis.
If we add in 12 months of vision x the EBITA should get up towards 210mil and EBIT of ~200.
If we assume they can deleverage towards 1.75x (mid range) this would imply paying down ~100mil debt.
At current share price that would imply an EV of 1.6b and an EV/EBIT of 8. Over the last 8 years or so, the company EV/EBIT has tended to be between 11 and 16. So if we assume the company tracks back towards the mean (which should occur given the increased geographic and product diversity and lower ICE focus), then that would imply an EV of 2.7bil, a market cap of 2.35b and a share price around $17.
I've started buying back in here, and will look to add more esp if PEP start selling their 5% stake which comes out of escrow next monday.
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