The FY23 result as expected - nothing new relative to the Dec Q...

The FY23 result as expected - nothing new relative to the Dec Q 2023 announcement. The dividend is surprise - lower than my expectations but is it lower than market expectations (who knows).

Looking at FY24, production is rising relative to FY23 and costs are falling relative to FY23. This is a positive. But at the end of the day, the most critical issue impacting on FY24 is the thermal coal price and to a lesser extent the met coal price. The thermal coal price is looking weak at the moment. Assuming the thermal coal price remains around current levels throughout FY24 (as well as the met coal price), earnings will be materially lower in FY24 compared with FY23 (as a guide, FY24 NPAT might be around $850m compared with $1819m in FY23). That said, who knows what will happen to coal prices in FY24.