Those cap rates have actually blown out further than I expected this time around.
If we use the pro forma figures given in the capital raising presentation (and then factor in a 52 percent take up of shares) then I would say that pre todays write down the NTA was sitting at 75 cents.
A 12 cent decline gives us 63 cents remaining which is still a 40 percent discount to todays SP of 38 cents at a 35 percent gearing rate.
This whole situation has been really frustrating and disappointing but in terms of valuations going forward I'm a little more optimistic that we're close to the bottom now.
A 20 percent decline for A Grade office is the figure that keeps getting quoted and from December 2022 to today we've now had a 21% fall in the portfolio value.
Some other pretty stunning figures for context in the same time frame:
The NTA has decreased by 45% (using my figure of 63 cents)
The share price has decreased by 24%
And the dividend has decreased by 50%
For comparison the ASX200 REIT index has actually increased by nearly 19% over the past 12 months.
Interestingly there was an article on this in today's AFR where they interviewed someone from CBRE and that person particularly highlighted Brisbane as the office market where rents are actually still growing and they expect to see some capital appreciation again over the next couple of years (this will hopefully work well for the TOT Cannon Hill property).
I really hope there is an opportunity for regular shareholders to ask management questions around the time of the August result.
I just hope we see more accountability going forward.
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Last
38.5¢ |
Change
0.015(4.05%) |
Mkt cap ! $82.62M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
37.5¢ | 38.5¢ | 37.5¢ | $24.17K | 64.18K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 32075 | 38.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.5¢ | 2962 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 32075 | 0.380 |
1 | 5348 | 0.375 |
1 | 100000 | 0.370 |
2 | 68000 | 0.365 |
3 | 101490 | 0.360 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.385 | 2962 | 1 |
0.390 | 60615 | 3 |
0.395 | 80001 | 3 |
0.400 | 375746 | 4 |
0.420 | 77814 | 2 |
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