Upon conversion (and after Buyback), I estimate ~773m shares on...

Upon conversion (and after Buyback), I estimate ~773m shares on issue (assuming all URFPA holders DRP @ 10day VWAP of 26.5)

Latest quarterly shows net assets at $497m AUD at 0.69c (now $511m at 0.67c).
Take out $10m for Buyback - approx $500m net assets remaining (AUD)

If you assume a 3 year period of selling down properties at an annual cost of $15m per annum (and other cash flows at BE) - that should result in ~$450m across 773m shares on issue, or 58.2c per share

On a price of 27c, the upside is ~115%. That's approximately 29% CAGR.

This does not incorporate:
1) Drop in asset values (the most obvious, given rates)
2) A change in FX rates
3) Any impacts from further buybacks
4) Any externalization of fund operations.
5) The possibility management change their approach and no longer want to return $$ (unlikely given the register)

Seems like minimal downside to me.