My last post was couple of months back.
At that I had got emotional and had written something which I felt I shouldn't have. I didn't like the play and my emotions got over. I apologised next day. I decided I will write next time when a major announcement is in play.
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So we had a major announcement this week. Before that, price was 1.4. On announcement, it reached 2.6. We reached 1.5, close to where we were before announcement. Why was that? It was a big thing - why did it not give a sustained increase in SP.
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For those who read my posts, or want to, I did a series from last August. Few years back I made over 30% loss here on a big amount, hence following all the time to see if I can recover. No vengenance.
All my previous posts have pointed towards couple of things - is there an economic viability of the play. And secondly, for last 13 years, why has there been no binding agreement.
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So we got a play here. Why didn't the SP rise? Firstly, it still not confirms the viability of play. Secondly, there is no binding agreement like last 13 years. So, nothing has changed. So we are back to where we were. So the SP is firmly in the same place now.
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Some may say that we may raise in October, that's a big thing? Yes it is. Lets look at the facts. A raise of around 320m is 50% of project with another 320m by Saudis. So roughly around 700m AUD. MGU is 10-15m dollar company. Who would invest 700m dollar and have to worry about 10/15m. If someone was interested in spending that much money, they would have bought out MGU rather than let MGU reap the rewards of all the gains. 10/15m out of 700m is peanuts - why would you want to leave major profit to others? The answer lies there. Overall, it does not make sense. No wonder, punters are not aflling for the great work Neil has done. The rest is fluff for me till I see the raise. Neil has bought another 6 months with this play. He will need to raise for the interim. After few months he could say there was a slight delay and stretch it to one year. I am hoping not, but very possible, in the scheme of things. It doesn't change much for him if he keeps on getting salary and can continue to raise with the carrot, another few years bought. I still wish something good happens here. But of what I have seen, I have no intentions to buy back. I am concerned for holders. Hopefully something good happens here. What can holders do? Sell - at a big loss? Or continue to hold - with a miniscule hope? I took my loss few years back, now I feel for the holders. Its still not looking good, especially with a raise coming soon. I wish you well.
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