I spoke to a company rep today. Not something I often do as they generally just tell you what you want to hear. That said it's something I would encourage others to do. Ask some hard questions
I asked quite directly if it's a scam. Obviously they said no. It was after the conversation ended that I reflected on several points made/discussed/inferred.
- They are quite open to the fact that several of their large shareholders are leftovers from the mining/exploration days who have little to no alignment with the current business direction (may explain the reckless selling)
- They confirmed that the Tangier entity with the poor website is indeed the intermediary. The funding of the US facility is the role of GEP and GEP have apparently worked previously with the persons behind Tangier
- They are fully expecting the funds to be in account this month.
- There is a facility being built in Amsterdam, modules have been shipped, site works have been ongoing for a long time, videos exist, the Port of Amsterdam have publicly promoted the facility. There are offtake documents for the fuel and for the supply of plastic. As part of the facility permit financial viability is a component, documents are publicly available or the company can send them.
- Management are not selling any shares, if they did you will see a change in directors interest. They own a ton of the company
- Management have millions in personal funds lent to the company. If the company fails they are by far the biggest losers
- Management have their money, their reputations and quite likely their freedom on the line. If they have been making the story up they will lose their investments. Furthermore when you read the announcements of late if this were to be a scam on retail they will have purposefully misled the investment community and would be fully exposed to criminal charges, class actions etc etc.
- GEP have spent years working to get a plastics recycling facility up and running. If the facility does not go ahead then they have nothing to gain, their financial success requires funding and ultimately an operating and profitable plant.
- Rabobank, ADIA, Port of Amsterdam, SGC have all made financial commitment . Their DD process likely far outweighs that of any HC or Twitter personality
In my view it pays to remain critical and to keep in mind that there is a chance we could be being misled, it's important to be prepared for the fact that IGE may not deliver, however it's unlikely that IGE is a scam. If it is it's one of the dumbest in history where all those misleading the market forgot to extract personal gain.
Chances are in my view that they have gone down less conventional paths than we expect but the money will come in within the 10 day window. The Amsterdam facility will be completed and the USA facility construction will begin.
If it plays out as per guidance then within days IGE will have $US80 million in the bank from ADIA, of which $US39.6m is a down payment on the construction of modules. Modules which IGE sell for cost +50%.
The SGC funding facility of $US90 million will be available for draw down
Within a few months the Amsterdam facility will be in production, the USA facility in construction, the Thailand and UK plants too.
Pull this off and they will be turning over 2000 ton or so of plastic per day and producing 700 million litres of fuel. They say they can make $70m EBITDA off 400tpd so at 2000tpd (USA, UK, Dutch, Thai) this would be closer to $175 million EBITDA (net to IGE). Oil prices have dropped back from the $70/bbl used in this article however it's still a hell of a number for a company trading at a $60m MC. While keeping a cynical view don't lose sight of what's coming if they are simply telling the truth.....
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