MFG 3.02% $10.22 magellan financial group limited

I find it very interesting that some of the talk by HD in the...

  1. 76 Posts.
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    I find it very interesting that some of the talk by HD in the months prior to Covid there was a lot of talk about inflation, bubbles in investment markets and particularly overzealous valuations in tech stocks. Despite the fund being dominated at the time by many of these absurd P/E tech stocks, and very little companies that reflected any sort of resiliency to inflation, or an interest rates environment in which inflation was occurring. I often get the impression HD virtually never considered the rates question at all.

    Which of course you recognize here in many regards too. It does seem in terms of diagnosing problems he actually was on the ball in many respects, it just didn't reflect any meaningful or beneficial approach by his fund picks.

    I've mentioned in other posts I'm bullish on crypto even if purely for playing with volatility and timing bull/bear cycles, particularly with the fear and greed that arising on the the giant peaks and fear on the collapses (where I believe real value exists, particularly for a straight forward example like Bitcoin).

    One of the reasons I started to sour initially on Hamish is the maximalist mindset in terms of "its going to zero". It seems to me that its an incredibly dangerous mindset to view things with a binary 100% or 0% figure for beliefs, I don't have any expectation he should pretend to understand the industry or buy in, but as he talks about in the article you posted that HE himself says you should be able to recognize your sphere of competence and have scepticism of your own beliefs. Where you're at the point that you believe you can do no wrong and that there's no need for questioning if you're making a mistake, you've got a recipe for disaster in active management.

    One thing he's right on is that you've got to be prepared at some point to throw something in the bin. Like this company for one, which Hamish himself too to heart with his recent sells.


 
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