I'm sorry to say but I think this stock will probably go <$5. This is still a very ripe shorting opportunity.
At the centre of my view is that Magellan is trapped in a very vicious cycle - the worst I have seen for nearly any business or human.
The combination of sustained underperformance, "criminally" high fees (as someone mentioned earlier) and likely instability among investment teams (staff being underwater on their non-recourse loans etc.) means only one thing: more money leaving the company. The disruption wrought by low-fee index managers adds piss to the fire as opposed to icing on the cake.
What possible reason does any retail investor, financial adviser group or institutional manager like a super fund have to keep their money in Magellan? None.
It's just pain for everyone except the senior management team, who are happily taking big salaries at your expense. In asset management, lower FUM = lower share price. That's just how it goes. This isn't some commodity that can rebound due to ebbs and flows in demand. This isn't Sydney Airport which is temporarily being affected by lockdowns. This is a business suffering in compound carnage - they can't simply "invent" their way out of underperformance. Any one of their stock picks can go from bad to worse. It's all a fluke.
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