back of an envelope calc:
- retail vs Institutional share still relatively stable compared to Jun23 (retail ~46-47% of total FUMs)
- if we assume that they earn ~60bps on the average FUM of $36.9bn then you get revenues of ~$108m for 6 mths (note that for FY23 they earned 67bps so there is upside there of ~10-12m)
- they have guided to $95-100m in expenses for FY24 so assume they had costs of $50m
=> PBT of ~$53m for 1H23 on the funds management business
You then have probably a decent return from their Magellan Funds investment offset with losses at Barrenjoey (tough half for investment banks).....so not a total basket case, but the big question mark is whether this is the bottom of the cycle for outflows?
back of an envelope calc: - retail vs Institutional share still...
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