fyi: actual H2 FY23 (most recent) expense base:almost $90m in...

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mickeebee

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05/01/24

12:27

Post #: 71741205
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Originally posted by SteveSage: ↑

I think the losses from Barrenjoey are going to be much larger this half compared to last year (IPOs, debt raising, M&A activity at historic lows and they are still growing their other businesses), but given they have investment in their own funds, I suspect that may have grown given what markets have done in the last 6 mths. These are unknown so will have to wait (plus any unrealised markdowns they may make).

The other issue is costs; they did say funds mgmt costs will be ~95-100m for FY24 and imagine that this would be the bulk of the expenses so your ~72m seems very high.....it will be 20m lower (at least excluding any one-offs they are having to make).

Given investment revenue and investment FV adjustments are unknow, hard to know where they land, but you can't really compare YoY given what has happened to the business.......if they make EPS of ~50c for the full year, it may not be as bad a result as you think....they have investments valued at ~800m so a business with an EV of ~1bn generating ~100m in NPAT is not crazy from a valuation perspective.....it comes down to those inflows/outflows and whether sentiment has turned (and the performance remains relatively favourable)

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fyi: actual H2 FY23 (most recent) expense base:

almost $90m in expense costs for the MOST recent half! Doubt this will drop to $50m as you allude.....that would be a $40m turnaround half on half.

the only leg room is the expenses related to strategic initiatives which may provide relief of $10-15m...

MFG Price at posting: $9.58 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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