Still no comments as I recall as to whether the person has a...

Still no comments as I recall as to whether the person has a vested interest in suggesting sell. That they have shorted this.
I did do my valuation but in reality the valuation you do isa snapshot in time and in fact its either a falling knife or a curve with a bottom.
This is my thesis. It looks only at risk. the NTA is $4.60 but I assumed it qas only $4.00 Then you have to adjust the Barreenjoey cost to valuation. The Barclays additional input suggests that there is another $130 to $150 million there. There are 181.5 million shares on issue. so lets say another 80c. so my risk was what I paid to around say $5.00 if I assume a profit for past 6 months as I paid $8.00 plus brokerage. so my risk is $3.00 per share.
This has to find a base of FUM. No one can predict that as looking over the past 18 months you would say the prediction is zero. Life isn't like that- there are always nutters like ne who back underdogs. Plus stock pickers havent done well over the past decade. I think that value in stocks is the growth , potential, futture returns and an appropriate discount rate for the risk taken. Right now people are looking for cover in investing in LIC's so a faur percentage of them trade at a discount to NTA. So my view of LIC's are that if you could liquidate all of them shareholders would be better off. The institutional mandates are investing where they can get a product that will provide them an acceptable return. They probably want to be in the thick middle. I always remember the small fund that got overweight Afterpay - it caused so many issues and nervous directors that it ultimately closed down.
So I think MFG are being helped by a transition where the market seems to be disconnecting from the risks as the bond rate still doesnt cover the inflation rate - your real return is still negative and I don't think governments can afford a real interest rate. So my view is liquidity is required but so too after asets loke sticks go protect against inflation. This I suggest gives MFG a chance to weather this. The upside is they have to at least give a positive return and get close to market and then people will start to believe again.
The performance fees gadd me a bit of comfort but that announcement came after I had made the investment. looks like $11million made in H2.
What I still dont understand is these elaborate models from some posters look very like they are assessing two things - the continued withdrawal of funds and the performance of the portfolio. Thst suggsts they are trying to protect against a short position more than invest in MFG.
I would seriously advise that HC put in a shorted position so that these are disclosed. The posters should also remember the bad old HC days when posters bagged management and got sued. As I recall ASIC are all over advice given and vested interests - I think there was an AFR article about it.
I own shares and never hade any sentiment