bored, so did some rudimentary high level guesstimates of fee...

bored, so did some rudimentary high level guesstimates of fee income:
avg 66bps due to increased mix toward retail.....shows a ~$34m drop H1 vs H2....

		Outflows	FY23	FUM ($bn)	Fee Rev @ 66bp
1			Jun-22	61.3
2	FY23 Outflows	(2.5)	Jul-22	60.2	$33,412,500
3		(1.3)	Aug-22	57.6	$32,395,000
4		(3.6)	Sep-22	50.9	$29,837,500
5		(2.4)	Oct-22	51	$28,022,500
6		(2.5)	Nov-22	50.2	$27,830,000	53.8	H1 average FUM
7		(2.6)	Dec-22	45.3	$26,262,500	$177,760,000	H1 FY23 fee revenue
8		(0.5)	Jan-23	46.2	$25,162,500	vs $179m actual	- close enough!
9		(0.8)	Feb-23	45.4	$25,190,000
10		(3.9)	Mar-23	43.2	$24,365,000
11		(2.4)	Apr-23	42.7	$23,622,500
12		(0.5)	May-23	41.4	$23,127,500	43.4	H2 average FUM
13		(2.1)	Jun-23	39.7	$22,302,500	$143,770,000	H2 FY23 fee revenue
14		(25.1)			FY23 fee rev	$321,530,000	$(33,990,000)	decrease!

Modelled FY24 with same 66bps avg fee mix but FUM depletion at half the rate of FY23 (so overall -12bn outflow):

		Outflows	FY24	FUM ($bn)	Fee Rev @ 66bp
1	FY24 Outflows*	(1.3)	Jul-23	38.45	$21,491,250
2	*assumed half of FY23	(0.7)	Aug-23	37.8	$20,968,750
3		(1.8)	Sep-23	36	$20,295,000
4		(1.2)	Oct-23	34.8	$19,470,000
5		(1.3)	Nov-23	33.55	$18,796,250	35.48	H1 average FUM
6		(1.3)	Dec-23	32.25	$18,095,000	$119,116,250	H1 FY24
7		(0.3)	Jan-24	32	$17,668,750
8		(0.4)	Feb-24	31.6	$17,490,000
9		(2.0)	Mar-24	29.65	$16,843,750
10		(1.2)	Apr-24	28.45	$15,977,500
11		(0.3)	May-24	28.2	$15,578,750	29.90	H2 average FUM
12		(1.1)	Jun-24	27.15	$15,221,250	$98,780,000	H2 FY24
13		(12.6)			FY24 fee rev	$217,896,280	$(20,336,250)	decrease!

FY24 could be >$100m less in Fee Income.

Heads will need to roll this coming year (FY24) or expense to revenue will exceed 60%!!