Hi
@mickeebee
I think the second half will be a bit better than the first half. NPAT was $83.8M first half. Believe second half NPAT will be approximately $90M - purely based on average weighted fees over the last six months and if costs stay the same.
This would mean EPS is approximately 96c per share for the Full Year.
Also note that Magellan confirmed costs at between $125M-$130M for the year. I am assuming costs of $117M. This may reduce EPS by about 7c (so between 89c and 96c).
If we assume FUM stabilises and there are no abnormal write offs, then full year EPS FY24 will come in at around 93c per share.
There is one major impact no one is talking about here - what happens if Magellan management are forced to reduce staff costs? A good outcome will be that expenses will be reduced, however Magellan's staff are up to their eyeballs in debt. They may choose to not repay debt for leveraged shares - surely they are under water by up to 75% now. This may need to be written off by Magellan and will appear on the balance sheet.
In addition to this, what happens if Nick Bolton succeeds in liquidating MGF? This will actually be positive for the Magellan Balance Sheet and EPS. We will need to see what is in the Annual Report, Magellan do have capital parked in this vehicle.
Anyway, current results announcement will be interesting and future will have some paths to good and bad outcomes for Magellan management.
Best of Luck
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