Based on an investment sessionheld by PTM recently, I can...

Based on an investment sessionheld by PTM recently, I can conclude their sentiment as being:

* They are all about shaking off what is comfortable and what has worked inthe past. They don't think US markets will perform well moving forward

* Theybelieve it is a different world in terms of investment menu’s……..much greaterdiversity of markets than ever before. Return diversity and preservationof capital is their focus.

* Mildrecession coming – and probably priced in to some extent, but are cautious

* US Yieldcurve data shows something serious is underway. Credit availability moving forward – data shows credit tightening – points to recession

* US Housing– supply of new housing (weakest offering of houses on the market) – onsetbefore recession

* USmanufacturing PMI – ticked up to 47 (deep in contracting). Points torecession.

* US Retail sales – 1% yoy growth (fast slowing) – points to recession. Same rate back in 2008.

So the story on China:

* China is not an exciting place to invest – but boring isgood!

* they did not increase money supply during covid

* China still not game to stimulate enconomy – because of GFC

* Economy returning to growth – stable

* CPI – last decade between 0-5. Has not had inflationary surge like we have in the west.

* Apocalypse in Chinese property not true. Controlled demolition of highly geared property developers. Want to get speculation out of property market. Regulatory crack down – a good thing. Has affected confidence of Chinese buyers, not the end of the world

* Chinese businesses are optimistic – 2023

* Debt to GDP has fallen in the last 10 years

So again, they are pretty much bearish on USeconomy. Argument is that US assets can cost a significant amount of capital, whereas China assets probably wont. They don’t like paying high multiples for US Stocks over 18x for an expected 6% earnings growth.

Time will tell!!!