Hi Disappointed Greg
On report timings, think they need to adjust for US time. FUM reporting is consistently a day after each quarter outlined in the Calendar of Events.
In terms of earnings, GQG and ROC have grown significantly. Don't forget strategies like EAM and Proterra have added $100M in PAC's share of the FUM over the last year. ROC, EAM and Proterra are high margin earners, in the vicinity of 1% to 1.25%. My take on additional earnings this financial year are:
> Assume GQG above current FUM generates a fee equivalent to 0.5% of FUM. PAC's share of FUM grew by $2.418B this year, earnings increase by $12.09M ($2.418B*0.5%). $12.09M is 18% growth in revenue (assume $66M).
> Assume ROC FUM % of earnings is 1.25%, PAC's share of FUM grew by $559.8M this year, earnings increase by $6.9975M ($559.8M*1.25%). $6.9975M is another 10.6% growth in revenue (assume $66M). Running total 28.6% revenue growth.
> Assume EAM FUM % of earnings is 1%, PAC's share of FUM grew by $105.324M this year, earnings increase by $1.05M ($105.324M*1%). $1.05M is 1.5% growth in revenue, running total of 30.1% revenue growth.
> Assume Proterra FUM % of earnings is 1%, PAC's share of FUM grew by $105.157M this year, earnings increase by $1.05M ($105.157M*1%). $1.05M is 1.5% growth in revenue, running total of 31.6% revenue growth.
Due to growth we could be looking at $21.1875M in revenue alone, approximately 40c per share in revenue growth, 31.6% growth in revenue without factoring in decrease from other boutiques.
This coupled with the decrease in expenses from Seizert and Paul Greenwood not getting options due to share price performance. This will result in a pretty good earnings report this period. This is due 27/08 (or maybe the 28/08).
Victory Park Capital is stable for the year, however this coming year looks very exciting growth wise. Will give PAC management confidence that there is higher earnings ahead and include the standard GQG, ROC, EAM and Proterra. There is likely to be an increase in Carlisle too.
One earnings factor that we can't assess from the FUM releases, is IFP. They are generating revenue now, the broker platform has been released to market and will be interesting to understand what will be earnt in the last 6 months versus a whole 12 months in the upcoming financial year.
Best of Luck
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