Sorry lost. Investors usually don't operate on a linear model...

Sorry lost. Investors usually don't operate on a linear model that can be replicated on a spreadsheet.

I have averaged down very significantly over the last 5-6 months. That usually means at the times MFG is very heavily sold down, I may buy 5- 8 times during that month as the price drifts lower.

INVARIABLY, the price a month or so later recovers by 5%- 15%. In the recovery phase, holdings are trimmed, essentially crystallising a CGT loss from the earliest and highest price purchases, leaving a constantly reducing average holding cost. This essentially requires no additional capital investment, but since I want more of this stock, I have been buying more at low prices and selling less. My time horizon is 3-5 years, not 3-5 months and I have every confidence the business model will stand up in the 2023 market crisis whilst passive fund holders will be heavily hurt.

I have adopted this self disciplined approach (based on Ben Graham model) for decades. I now need only see $16.80 to break even.

What was I doing last week when the SP fell below $12? You can guess.

If we get to $13.50 in the next few weeks, you can also guess my trading bent.

This is pretty basic stuff. It is not fool proof, but no amount of computer modelling will ever replicate the skills many investors employ. This is precisely the reason I hold the view that in a bear market, good active investors/managers will crush index fund performance. They may not do it for an extended period of years, but I won't need them to, as I will have mostly sold out as they (roughly) top out.

GLTASH