I have mentioned before to you, investors use future EPS to value not looking back like what you are doing. Google,FB are in low twenties.
The next mistake is using historical averages. You have to combine those ratios in relation to interest rates. Nobody is predicting to interest rates going up to 4 to 6% like the period you have picked.
The next point is even you go by the historical rates S&P 500 needs drop by about 50 to 60% if you apply the same logic. That means all industrial and indexes that is compared to MFG have to drop much more. MFG portfolio should still be better investment.
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