absolutely meaningless drawing conclusions from a basic monthly OUTFLOW diagram - not even cumulative to realise the shear size of the carnage. and looking at nominal values as fum has depleted is also meaningless ($5bn outflow at 100bn is 5% but at 50bn is 10% etc) + 1 month of downtrend isnt a trend, yet.....fact is, fum outflow in nominal terms was always expected to decrease nominally - but is still a large % outflow for whats left of FUM....!
What would be more useful is to compare the RELATIVE performance of the various funds, as only OUTPERFORMANCE MATTERS TO FLOWS (not simply positive or negative performance, but outperformance (both + or -) vs benchmarks vs peers etc)......this IS THE ONLY THING THAT WILL INVERT YOUR CHART (finally get inflows - the only thing that matters for sustainability and future growth).
$500 MILLION STILL EXITED. MORE WILL FOLLOW.
as i stated already, the heavy lifting retail UNDERPERFORMED the insto. Put yourself in their shoes. their fund balance at Jan23 end was only slightly higher than their DEC22 balance - what would you do??? sit and wait patiently YET AGAIN (its been over a year of waiting), or move to ANOTHER BETTER PERFORMING FUND where their balance will actually grow???
you earn roughly 1.3% on retail funds.....vs 0.31% for insto (about a quarter of the retail). SO EVERY $1 FLOW IN RETAIL IS WORTH $4 OF INSTO to the bottom line. U lost the most in RETAIL - your HIGHEST earner!!!
and for those that cant get their heads around it...ill go slow:
Dec22 OPENING FUM = $45.3 BN
Jan23 FX =
-$1.3 BN (negative-approx)Jan23 Client FUM OUTFLOW =
-$0.5 Bn (as per the release) Jan23 fund performance =
+2.7bn (positive) or ~6% overall (2.7/45.3) AGREES TO LOST'S CALCS
JAN23 CLOSING FUM = $46.2BN (SUM OF THE ABOVE)
(20min delay)