Ann: Funds Under Management - June, page-55

Hey arsenic, don't worry about IQ. Even Warren happily concedes a good investor does not need a high IQ, just the right temperament.

I am not penciling in this quite yet, but I suspect last Friday's trading (15th July, 2022), after the June FUM release was possibly the "capitulation moment" for PTM.

Every stock sell down needs to reach that maximum despair moment, where even true believers lose their faith and sell in the fear that the share price has no bottom.

It is undeniable that the reputations of both MFG and PTM have been tarnished AND that 2022/23 earnings will fall. That is a given. My thesis has been that the ongoing business was always viable and profitable at a sustainable level of 12cps - 18cps supporting an underlying dividend of around 10cps to 14cps, in the absence of any capital management measures. At the same time, the PTM investment funds are broadly conservatively positioned and well placed to withstand a market rout.

Nothing has changed in the last 7 days except the share price (thank God for that) having recovered around 18% from the lows.

The short term price recovery will need to be backed up with ongoing consolidation and volumes to support the notion that the bottom has been reached. It is still too early to tell. Nevertheless, I hope for all our sakes that confidence returns in the business model and the long term success of this active manager's investment style.

I remain a believer, but not a preacher. Each to their own.

GLTASH