Ann: Funds Under Management - March 2019, page-24

What do you mean 20 ish x earnings for FY20? You have absolutely no idea what FY20 earnings are going to be like, its wholly dependent on inflows/outflows, the market and returns relative to benchmark. Its very much a possibility that they could be lower than FY19. The last report was so impressive specifically because of 6 month outperformance fees. That isn't a guarantee every half, this half still looking to be strong but not as much as the last. There are stocks for which predictions of future earnings are valid with the data at hand, this is not one of them. You do not have a crystal ball. I know some analysts are putting out data on this, but quite frankly the analysts have proved themselves to financially illiterate idiots on this stock. For example earnings were readily known to within a few % before the last financial report came out, yet it jumped hugely on the news. Same situation every report.

I've held this stock for a very long while now and the valuation does look stretched by any means. At this price level there has to be expectation of unknowns like cheap acquisitions or new services. There's still huge potential for longer term growth in this stock but $80 could be 3-5 years away, and it could easily languish at $40 for 12 months, or even drop back without it being particularly surprising.

Personally I think the Dow is on the verge of a big breakout and rise over the next 12 months which could drive this higher, but if that doesn't happen I expect this to drop back 15-25%.