I break down the FUM and net flows into net flows, and performance on the FUM.
When you look at the Funds Management segment expenses, they are at about $125m per annum, and their management fee of about 65 bps, they are not at break even until FUM falls to about $19b.
They lost about $25b, 36% of their FUM over the last 12 months in net outflows ($75b over two years), From 43.2 if they lose 25b over the next 12 months they are underwater at about 18b FUM. But seems unlikely that flows would not fall at a ratio of FUM. At losing 36% per annum they would fall to about 27.6 b in a year, and 17.7b in two years.
These sums assume no returns on the FUM, and in fact MFG have lost about $400m in fund returns over the last two years, and lost $850m over the last 12 months).
I suspect they will be needing to vigorously cost cut over the next two years, and may end up surviving on the "sticky remainders", like PTM has. PTM FUM performance has roughly broken even over the last two years.
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