Tempted to take a nibble, but another dark cloud is looming for...

Tempted to take a nibble, but another dark cloud is looming for all underperforming stocks, tax loss season. A lot of players will have made good money in the last year and be sifting through their portfolios looking for losers to sell to mitigate CGT. The market often performs badly in June.

I had a buy order on Magellan before they announced their share buyback, but missed out by being too stingy. Wondering whether to try and catch this falling knife instead? Trying to anticipate what the catalyst will be for a reversal, but it's always hard to imagine the thing that will turn around stocks that are being smashed for good reason. Afterwards you think, 'Oh, I should have seen that coming.' Managed to do it with AGL, but have lost money trying to pick the rebound in SZL.

One possible catalyst could be sackings/new appointments. Another could be China decoupling from Russia more over the Ukraine war, if they see that their interests are not being served by the current alliance. This could happen if more pressure is applied to discourage them from providing trade relief for Moscow. China's usual response to pressure is to get belligerent, but it's always possible Xi might back away from Russia and that could have a positive effect on Chinese stocks.

I'm 50/50, so will wait a bit longer I think. The market as a whole looks pretty risky at the moment.