My thesis is very simple. Many will disagree and many will think...

My thesis is very simple. Many will disagree and many will think that it's simplistic rather than simple.

My thesis is:

I continue to believe in the validity of PTM's investment nouse, mindset and process.

Despite a long period of "underperfomance", PTM has actually delivered respectable returns & the underperfomance has largely been a result of their refusal to succumb to "style drift". As such, imo, they have underperformed for the right reasons.

Whilst I am deeply in the red on my overall PTM investment, my prospective assessment is about the future, not the past. So yes, I was too early in adding to my position, but that's hindsight.

So whilst the "underperfomance" has dragged on longer than I had expected, I do not see why this should change my thesis. In fact, it strengthens my belief that PTM has the fortitude to maintain (what I consider) adherence to the right principles in the face of intense pressure to do otherwise (a rare thing in funds management).

Finally, I do not believe "the cycle" is dead, and if market "rotation" continues, and if China does not deliver nasty surprises, then it will possibly outperform. If it does, I expect fund flows to turn - BUT NOT BEFORE.

Lots of "ifs" - yes. But that's why it's out of favour.