I don't think the market realises how significant today's announcement is. My thoughts:
1. This confirms that the company is finally on track after troubled ramp up.
2. Confirms the mining models as it is delivering in accordance with feasibility.
3. I had previously expected 16koz in May. By delivering 19koz, this is 3koz more than what I had been expecting. This extra Oz will be sold into the spot market of around 2950-3000/Oz. This delivers an extra $9m to their coffers.
4. I had previously estimated $51m in cash at end of quarter after allowing for $22m of debt repayment, $8m in lease payments and $20m of growth and sustaining Capex. Debt at June qtr end is expected to be $128m. So previously estimates cash in kitty of at least 51m, or net debt of $77m. With an extra $9m May, and say 9m in June, net debt is down to $59m. If they only spend $10m on growth and sustaining Capex instead of $20m, then sub $50m net debt. This looks like it will be comfortably paid off in CY 2023.
5. If 4. is true, they can then chuck a bunch of money for exploration in 2024 to increase resource and reserves. The current price doesn't even fairly reflect their reserves at the moment imo.
Perhaps Mr market will only realise when the June qtr results come in and the $s are revealed. Great time to accumulate until Mr market catches on.
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