OCC 3.37% 43.0¢ orthocell limited

Only $1.1m of Striate+ revenue is actually from product sales....

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    Only $1.1m of Striate+ revenue is actually from product sales. This would be very much below 1% of even just the US market. My estimate is around 20 000 unit sales in FY24 compared to around 5 million dental implants performed in the US annually.
    $2.304m of Striate+ revenue is from amortisation of license fee BH paid. This is money OCC already received upfront and is amortised according to their contractual obligations to supply BH with Straite+. This is just an accounting number and confuses the actual($1.1m) revenue from product sales.

    Remplir is seeing faster adoption than Striate. It is more critical to fix nerves than to fix teeth.

    Striate still has a long way to go from a zero base. YoY growth was 50%+ of actual product sales in FY24. I'm expecting some acceleration in FY25, but that is just me hoping for the best. I can't wait for the next quarterly update, but Striate may take another 5 or even 10 years to get to 20% market share or even never get there. There are competing products in the market. Nothing is certain. Dentists have to be convinced to switch from what they ade currently using. Perhaps not that easy to get someone(a dentist) to change their ways.

    Remplir has a much better chance in my view to get to 20% adoption and a faster adoption rate as well. My estimate is that it is already at 5%+ of procedures(maybe 1000+ out of about 20 000) in the Australian market. So, compared to Straite, Remplir is seeing much faster adoption.

    Note: some of the numbers above are just my estimates as we don't know actual unit revenue that OCC receives. The MBS rate for Remplir was around $1300 last time I checked. OCC may perhaps only get 50% of this. Maybe someone else can comment on wholesale margin markups for medical products. I'm being conservative and guessing it won't be more than 100%(OCC only gets half). For Striate, I'm guessing this to be around $50/unit.

    In any case, just pointing out that Striate will likely continue to see slow(relative to Remplir) growth from a low base. If Straite can get from $1.1m sales to over $5m in two years(FY26), then that would be pretty decent growth, more than 100% YoY.
 
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