They are aiming for 40–50koz in year one, though I suspect the actual figure will be higher. According to their Gold Coast video presentations, they’re targeting 80–100koz by year three*. Their DFS outlines a lower trajectory, so they are effectively communicating two different scenarios. I suspect the DFS reflects a conservative base case (what investors will hold them to), while their verbal communication is aspirational, though likely achievable.At 65koz and a gold price of USD 3,300, I estimate around ~$109 million in after-tax profit. Multiply that by a P/E ratio, then divide by the number of shares to estimate the share price:
P/E of 8 = ~$0.33 P/E of 9 = ~$0.37 P/E of 10 = ~$0.41
We should reach this range within the next 24 months.
Note: Meeka's 750kW ball mill is designed to process up to 640,000 tonnes of ore per annum, translating to a maximum gold production of approximately 76,000 ounces per year. So they will need to use the money generated in year 1 (the next 12 months) to upgrade the mill. If they intend to achieve g 80–100koz by year three. If anyone else has other insights, please share.
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