Hi Cate,
As this is a community forum and not a court, I didn't use the same precision of language that I would in that other forum. As this seems to be more a conversation between us about a difference of opinion, and I don't want to get into a "he said, she said" argument, I'll make it my last on the subject.
As I said in my post, the categories I think of when assessing the level of speculation ("known unknowns", etc) are my personal, rough guides. I didn't go into the kind of definitions that I would if I were making a policy or a case because I only wanted to provide a general understanding of what I think are basic breakdowns on the speculation-ometer. You have latched on to a point I didn't make regarding "blue chips" – that they never go down. As I said, blue chips are prone to normal fluctuations. They can, of course, also suffer major drops. I did not say they are protected species, impervious to market and economic conditions. But the risk and thus the level of speculation is (according to me) low. As I had started by saying that all stocks have a degree of speculation about them, I thought that was clear.
Perhaps we have some common ground in that you've said you doubt, or find it unlikely, that many long-term shareholders are underwater. A doubt implies the possibility that there are, which is my position too. As I said, neither of us know all the things that would determine whether a holder is in profit or loss. There is doubt. We don't know things like when a person bought, how many shares, at what price, or what they consider to be a "loss". For example, if I had invested $100,000 ten years ago and was now sitting on a paper profit of $5000, I would consider it a loss (opportunity cost).
Personally, I don't see AZY as the gold mine (pun intended) that many people claim it to be. Nor do I think it's a dud. I bought in due to the JV partnerships, and continue holding with cautious hope. I do sometimes think that AZY is a case of "If it could've, it would've", but I remind myself that the JVs are relatively recent developments and results are coming in all the time. So I am prepared to wait a bit longer.
You touched on the point that is most important to me, and why I raise the spectre of caution with AZY and other companies. You wrote that even if there were long-term holders underwater, it's not significant, it's a non-issue. To me, it is an important issue. I've seen the impact of financial wreckage on people who made investment decisions based on hype and hope, either holding too long or, worse, chasing their losses to the bottom. Ugly stuff, and sometimes a note of caution can at least give some pause.
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