shortage of lithium

Nissan's EV Plans Unveiled
First it was Mitsubishi, followed in quick succession by Subaru, that announced earlier this year that they were developing electric cars around lithium ion batteries and that these cars would go on sale -- presumably in Japan first -- around the 2010 or earlier.

Then came the long summer hiatus rife with rumors about which major carmaker would be the first to announce they would build a plug-in hybrid. GM ended the speculation at the LA Auto Show a couple weeks ago when CEO Rick Wagoner announced the company would build one... someday... if and when battery technology permitted.

Meanwhile Toyota executives have gradually warmed to the idea, but haven't committed one way or the other, probably because to do so would undercut sales of their current hybrid technology, though it wouldn't surprise me if the now-2009 Prius model doesn't offer plug-in capability, though that's purely supposition on my part.

Now Nissan, Japan's number two car company, has formally unveiled its future car plans that not only include development of their own hybrid drive, independent of the Toyota's THS system it licensed for the new Altima Hybrid but also a battery electric car. Oddly, the Auto Channel in reporting this doesn't use the words "electric car".

Here's how they report the news:

As part of the research underway in cooperation with Nissan, Renault is looking into a solution that is ideally suited to city driving and does not emit any CO2 at all when the vehicle is in motion. The project has reached an advanced stage and Renault is already working on all the future vehicle's components. Renault and Nissan are working together on Lithium-Ion battery technology and packaging, the electric motor and the software that is needed to manage the solution. Work is also underway on a process to recover energy when the vehicle brakes.

Future Lithium Shortage
Regardless, it's good news for all of us, though it does start to raise concerns about the future availability of lithium as reported this week in Resource Investor. It seems there are only a few places on the planet that currently produce commercial quantities of lithium. Writes Jack Lifton....

Every pound of lithium used to make the battery pack for a hybrid or an all-electric vehicle, if the total of 1 million vehicles per year by 2010 now promised by U.S. based car makers is produced, nearly doubles the total annual usage of lithium for all purposes in the U.S.

If all of the global OEM industry goes to lithium battery technology for its hybrids and electrics then every pound used by just the non-ICE powered cars now promised to be made by 2010 will use up more than 10% of the world’s annual production of lithium.

There is no substitute for lithium in the near term if the first mass production of hybrids and all electric battery powered cars are to meet their time tables for production and their promised performance characteristics.

My guess is that when the American OEM automotive industry executives figure that out they will be investing a lot more than $15 million with lithium producers to increase production as rapidly as possible and guarantee that they are not squeezed out by competitors through off-takes. I think this is already under way, but that the “lithium supply crisis” will only be recognized by Wall Street in 2007.

The world’s largest producer of lithium chemicals is Chile, but for Americans, our estimated reserves of 750,000 tonnes and the expertise and skill of ROC look a lot closer and better.

Megawatts to Miles
Assuming there's sufficient lithium available and manufacturing capacity to build all the necessary battery packs, the objection is always raised that we'll have to build more electric power plants to charge them, and that usually means more coal-fired plants, dumping evermore quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere, not to mention mercury, sulfur and other byproducts and pollutants.

A new report authored by US DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratories or PNNL now seems to have laid that argument to rest. The study assumed that "current batteries for these cars can easily store the energy for driving the national average commute - about 33 miles round trip a day..." States the report:

If all the cars and light trucks in the nation switched from oil to electrons, idle capacity in the existing electric power system could generate most of the electricity consumed by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. A new study for the Department of Energy finds that "off-peak" electricity production and transmission capacity could fuel 84 percent of the country's 220 million vehicles if they were plug-in hybrid electrics.

Interestingly for those of us in the American Midwest and on the East Coast, there appears to be sufficient overnight capacity and distribution to power all of our cars if they were pure battery and "electric hybrids" -- as Thomas Friedman recently referred to what we've been calling, up to now, "plug-in hybrids." Whatever we end up calling them, we're talking about something on the order of 180 million vehicles that don't have to use petroleum, petroleum that the planet can husband on behalf of future generations for more important uses.

The Global Oxygen Crisis
If you're a fan of fiction writer, Clive Cussler -- or of actor Matthew McConaughey -- you'll recall that the plot of one of Cussler's "Dirk Pitt" novels, which was made into the action adventure thriller Sahara, involves a man-made toxic red tide bloom that threatens to destroy the ocean's phytoplankton, which produce half of the world's oxygen, as well as consume one hundred million tons of carbon-dioxide daily.

In a strange and serious twist of fate, it turns out that global warming is not only heating the planet, it's also starving the ocean's phytoplankton.

Global warming is causing stratification of the world's oceans, which is preventing the up-welling of colder, nutrient-rich waters on which the phytoplankton depend to fix atmospheric carbon dioxide. But as their numbers decline, they absorb less CO2, creating a vicious climatic feedback loop.

I hate it when truth is not only stranger than fiction, but carries worse consequences: more global warming and less oxygen for the planet. This is not good, folks.

A Christmas Message
For the Western world, this time of year is often focused on not just gift giving, but on self-reflection and resolutions for the approaching new year. It would seem from the results of the American mid-term elections last month, the nation has decided -- on reflection -- its ready for change, at least politically. Would I be too bold to suggest that the rest of the world concurs?

Whether you say "peace", "salem" or "shalom", it's my sense that we're all tired of conflict and war. We're just too small a planet to go on wasting our resources on destroying others.

I don't know if you follow the Non-Sequitur comic series, but this past weekend Wiley Miller, the cartoonist, pointedly addressed the folly of it all. His cartoon cynic, a little girl named Danae and her pet pony, Lucy, are out sledding and Lucy asks...

"Um.. you lost me there. Explain that again?

"OK", Danae replies. "One group of followers willing sacrifice themselves to blow up people who follow a different religion."

Lucy: "Yeesh!! Can't get more fanatical than that, eh?"

Danae: "Well.. The other group of followers are willing to commit all their resources to launching overwhelming military strikes in retaliation."

Lucy: "And how about the third group of followers?"

Danae: "They're willing to blow up the entire planet."

Lucy: "Oh... and why are they all doing this to each other?"

Danae: "To prove which one is the true religion of peace."

Lucy: "I'll never understand how you guys made it to the top of the food chain..."

Danae: "Well, they don't call it blind faith for nothin..."

You gotta love Wiley's razor sharp sense of irony.

As I reflect on the year now nearly past, I have to extend some special thanks starting first, of course, with all of our premium subscribers whose own "blind faith" and the $29 you spent have helped make EV World possible. Your subscriptions represent a significant percentage of our revenues that help pay for our web hosting fees, extra bandwidth charges, travel and office expenses, plus my modest salary. There are some 835 of you, so you can do the math. Thank you from the depth of my being for allowing me to have one of the best jobs on the planet.

Next, I want to extend my special thanks to Aerovironment and Guiness Atkinson for taking up the mantle of corporate sponsors. Their contributions over the last year have made it possible for me to get to events like the ASPO USA conference and AltCar Expo, at which I can capture video, audio and personal impressions that I am able to share with you all.

Although we often find ourselves at odds with many of the choices General Motors has made in the past, they were big enough to include me this year in two of their highly educational "Hydrogen Pathway" trips: one to Iceland and the other to Idaho Falls. I learned a great deal and made many new friends in the process. I also thank Jim Motavalli for suggesting to GM that they include me. Thanks, Jim, Scott, Britta and Robert.

To Toyota I also say "Thank You" for arranging for me to test drive the new Lexus GS450h to our daughter's thesis defense at the University of Iowa this summer. My wife and I were able to travel in comfort across the sweeping landscape in a car whose luxury and power matched the scope of our pride. Our daughter is now pursuing her medical research career as a PhD immunologist at the University of Birmingham in Alabama.

Finally, to all of you who have contributed your energy and talents to help make EV World a better publication, I extend my heart-felt appreciation. Your kind words of support, suggestions and even criticisms have been welcome, as were all those freely contributed articles and personal blogs that help make the site a rich mosaic of perspectives. Thanks to the Galchers, the Shahs and the Scotts for sharing their homes with me.

To all of you, named and unnamed, I say "Thank you" and may we all finally enjoy a new year blessed with peace and joy. Salem and Shalom.

Until next time, stay plugged into EVWorld...