I think we come out at 50 years, 12,500tpa. I take the 1 + 1 = 3 being that TMT + AVL is better than just putting the two together, with the synergies available.
Depending on how EKF, NAIF, ARENA fall out, maybe we can get ~$400m from them ($150m from EKF, 150m from ARENA and 100m from NAIF).
My back of the envelope on offtake is we can get 12months of production sold for financing. Using 12500tpa, $7USD/lb and a 65c AUD/USD exchange rate, that is worth $296m AUD. Lets call it $300m. There is our ~700m capex figure combined with 400m from above.
We would then only need to use dilution/commercial loans for working capital, and any shortfalls in the above assumptions. If we raised after other milestones, our MC could be the sum of the current $129m MC + $700m CAPEX + 39m (rest of grant) + EPA approvals so close to 1b MC, with 8.6b shares on issue or 11.6c a share.
Assuming we had to raise another 300m working cap, that would only be an extra 3b shares at 10c a share (15% discount to my 11.6c share above). Could we get 300m in commercial loans and do away with mass dilution? I think it is possible, with other cap raises only required to get us to financial close.
So, if my assumptions are any good, and we can cap raise after achieving other milestones, we would get to production with 12b shares on issue prior to any consolidation.
The new board are doing a great job getting good news out to the market in a timely manner. Time's are definitely changing around here. Looking forward to seeing their financial metrics putting my back of the envelope to shame.
Expand
(20min delay)