Won’t be 50 years : )it will be something like:20 years maybe 30...

First 8 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Troydt

3,855 Posts.

1076

27/03/24

19:06

Post #: 73090104
Share

Originally posted by LewisB: ↑

I think we come out at 50 years, 12,500tpa. I take the 1 + 1 = 3 being that TMT + AVL is better than just putting the two together, with the synergies available.

Depending on how EKF, NAIF, ARENA fall out, maybe we can get ~$400m from them ($150m from EKF, 150m from ARENA and 100m from NAIF).

My back of the envelope on offtake is we can get 12months of production sold for financing. Using 12500tpa, $7USD/lb and a 65c AUD/USD exchange rate, that is worth $296m AUD. Lets call it $300m. There is our ~700m capex figure combined with 400m from above.

We would then only need to use dilution/commercial loans for working capital, and any shortfalls in the above assumptions. If we raised after other milestones, our MC could be the sum of the current $129m MC + $700m CAPEX + 39m (rest of grant) + EPA approvals so close to 1b MC, with 8.6b shares on issue or 11.6c a share.

Assuming we had to raise another 300m working cap, that would only be an extra 3b shares at 10c a share (15% discount to my 11.6c share above). Could we get 300m in commercial loans and do away with mass dilution? I think it is possible, with other cap raises only required to get us to financial close.

So, if my assumptions are any good, and we can cap raise after achieving other milestones, we would get to production with 12b shares on issue prior to any consolidation.

The new board are doing a great job getting good news out to the market in a timely manner. Time's are definitely changing around here. Looking forward to seeing their financial metrics putting my back of the envelope to shame.

Expand

Won’t be 50 years : )

it will be something like:

20 years maybe 30 years at $4 per pound V205 infilled mining schedule at Yarrabubba plus 95,000-150,000 Illmenite for 15-20 years. Infill means very consistent mining schedule with no peaks and troughs. Combined AVL and TMT Yarrabubba pit.

16years at $5 per pound V205 only GVP north pit

10 years at $6-$8 per pound via the TMT central and AVL pits.

Just my prediction not advice.

The best ore is always mined first with the higher grade ore last.

AVL Price at posting: 1.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply