Ann: FY 2020 Guidance & Updated 8 Year Life of Mine Plan, page-50

Here's my analysis.

Key Assumptions:

• 150,000 koz ( low-end of guidance )
• AISC $1,440 ( upper-end of guidance )
• Share Issue 226M
• Debt $105.5M
• Interest $10.55M pa

I used a P/E of 7.5 as sentiment is not so great given recent performance. That gives me a price target of $1.38.



Now the interesting thing is the value of what (they say) they have in the ground. Peer comparison of the value of reserves would put them at $5.77!

This is done by taking the MCAP of peers and their total reserves and working out an average value of each koz of reserve as a proportion of MCAP.

The value of what (they say) they have in the ground makes them IMO a takeover target, particularly if they have someone independent take a very, very careful look at their Reserve and Resource estimates. My own sentiment with this is hold because of takeover potential, but watch out if manipulation starts to occur. My original parcel is at a loss but I quintupled my holding after the calamity.