MTS 0.54% $3.68 metcash limited

I held until 2 months ago, when I took a big loss on my holding...

  1. 6,294 Posts.
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    I held until 2 months ago, when I took a big loss on my holding and invested it all into Macquarie Bank.

    2.5% of my portfolio is MTS, 25% is MQG (average buy $38), so I hear you. ;)

    The lesson for me is that if a stock is in the doldrums, get out and take losses and move into something else

    It really depends on whether you believe the stock is in structural decline. For a while it was open to argument as to whether MTS's troubles were cyclical or structural, because all discretionary retailers were suffering heavily, and convenience grocery shopping is arguably discretionary.

    If it's cyclical it's okay to hold IMO, especially if you are in it for fixed income (ie dividends) but it seems pretty clear now that there is a definite structural problem running through MTS, so if I were holding a big parcel I would do exactly what you have done and not buy back in unless and until this Project Diamond starts to work.

    The reason we are discussing which IGAs are busy is not because we're trying to transfer it to the entire operation. On the contrary we are trying to identify which stores do well and which don't. We have basically come to the same conclusion as MTS. The local corner store type deals are struggling, the fancier 'variety' type stores seem to be doing much better.

    I actually think it's a good thing for MTS if the type of stores you talk about get closed or bought out by Woolies. MTS can redirect the resources away from supplying them for marginal gains and put them into something else, whether it's F&G stores that are doing well, or branching out into the other pillars.

    I think the 'corner store' component of F&G will continue to decline and is probably not going to turn around, particularly in regional areas where Coles and Woolies are moving in as fast as they are physically able, at the expense of the traditional 'local IGA.' So MTS's business model will have to change, but at least they recognise that.
 
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