I have just reviewed this again. If you believe their capex efficiency figure, the implication of this year's capex spent implies a 40-50% jump in revenues next year, without counting the impact of the NZ acquisition.
It appears that there is a recurring argument within the investment community as to the correct way of calculating free cashflow with VOC. The main disagreement is whether one should add or subtract growth capex. Given that total capex spent last year exceeded $30m, the discrepancy in valuation with say 8 to 10x multiple is $240m to $300m.
I subtract growth capex ie do not include it in my FCF calculations. However, I am very happy to be proven wrong, and would like to hear other's views.
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Ann: FY14 Results Investor Presentation, page-29
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