I hope it helps, but DYOR as they say. I'm am author/ wannabe movie producer, not a professional investor, so take everything I say as standard HC meritless waffle, but indulge me as I loved the matrix.
Here is where it gets freaky NEO , there really is No Spoon.
NEO - But I’ve seen the company have good and bad revenue periods
Spoon Boy - Really ? A company with 700 people that is growing rapidly has significant variations in revenue ? up and down.
NEO - Yes I've seen it
Spoon Boy - Its provisions NEO
NEO - But it can't be
Spoon Boy - What does your company sell ?
NEO - They don't sell anything they, they charge for professional services. They're Lawyers
Spoon Boy - And are these lawyers collectively billing more man hours ?
NEO - Yes every reporting period since it started.
Spoon Boy- So the company has grown every period ?
NEO - Yes, but revenue hasn't
Spoon Boy - But it has NEO , there is no spoon, only provisions
NEO - Can't be Revenue in H2 15 was $9M less than H2 14
Spoon Boy - But it wasn't
NEO - It was I can see it in the accounts
Spoon Boys - Was there more laywers working in Shine H2 15 then there were H2 14?
NEO - Yes
Spoon Boy - And did they discount their fees ?
NEO – I already told you they’re lawyers. Maybe they closed less files.
Spoon Boy – Closing files is cash flow NEO , it is not how they determine their profit. But is Cash flow up ?
NEO – Yes every year, its grown by over 20% per annum
Spoon Boy – So they are closing more and more files every year ?
NEO – Yes and they've expanded their outstanding work awaiting payment
Spoon Boy – By Much ?
NEO – Yes, it’s more than doubled as well.
Spoon Boy - So do you believe than that these lawyers were just sitting around in H2 15 ?
NEO – No they were working, they've growing rapidly increased billable hours every period including H2 15.
Spoon Boy - And what does this mean ?
NEO - Ahhhh there is no spoon , they just moved more of their outstanding billable hours into bad debt
Spoon Boy - Good Neo, they’re machines. Money making ones, but machines none the less.
NEO- Ahh they did the same thing this half , turnover looks flat at $75M but they increased their billable hours to a record $71M and their outstanding work to be paid grew by $13M . Record Billable Hours – Massive Growth in outstanding. Damn Spoon!
Spoon Boy < Nods>
NEO – So how do we stop them? I want the company to provision only what is required, so I can get more dividends and have the company increase in value; both on the ASX and its books.
Spoon Boy – Email John George [email protected] He is investor relations at Shine.
NEO – And ask him what ?
Spoon Boy – Think NEO !
NEO – Ask him:
1) What is the current Billed/Paid/ WIP/ Written off for each respective year for the last five years. I.E in files opened in 2012 you've billed $80M so far, and of this 80M how much is paid, outstanding and what have you written off ?
2) Is there any reason why future income would deviate from historical performance? If so what is it?
3) Why does shine carry 21.1% in provisions now when it only had 14.5% at prospectus and its peer only carries 9%
Spoon Boy – Good Neo , there is no spoon.
NEO – Oh but there is kid, and I know where I am going to shove it if they try and push this provision above 21.1% or won’t explain to me why it’s so high.
Spoon Boy – Start with shedding light, and forcing substantiation NEO ; we’ll deal with your anger issues later.
Investors in any company where provisioning , income allocation/postponement , capital depreciation estimates are a significant element of performance should always tyre kick these amounts. The best thing to do with most self serving boards is to shine ( operative word) light onto the amounts and say "we know what you're doing, and we're not happy so please explain the position mathematically." They closed 4500 cases last year , they know what this number should be, and in my opinion they are taking the pi$$
DannyBoy LIAC
SHJ Price at posting:
66.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held