I thought a lot about whether using the current base or underlying sales is the best metric. I initially thought as you did but then realized that due to the very short nature of the loans (they are paid back in 30 days on average), you should naturally get a much larger tail over time (it would be the most phenomenal business in the world if it didn't). The best metric IMO for seeing if there are deteriorating credit metrics is written off bad debts/ (underlying TTM sales - outstanind receivables - which approximates completed loans) which hasn't deteriorated.
Anyway I have had enough of this thread- we can come back in however many months/ years and see how things have panned out.
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