I have some structural concerns about TPG; (EDIT: ok, a lot of concerns)
- Its in a fairly risky stage of their development with the rollout of mobile, im not convinced its a long term win, and their as lot of capital to risk, it could end up a savage fight against 3 stronger opponents that drags out for a decade
- Singapore seems a bit random, going after Vodafones NZ assets would have been much better offshore move.
- Some of its fibre is looking pretty old now, eg. PIPE.
- I dont see the iiNet brand as a good fit for TPG and am surprised the numbers are holding up as well as they are.
- TPG Corporate looks like could use some love, VOC as a company is half the size of TPG but corporate is roughly equal, and VOC has a lot more growth coming that way from ASC.
- I dont like the way the board is organised, what would happen if Teoh fell under a bus, no-one in a healthy organisation should be irreplaceable, there should be more board members as well to have more diverse talent.
- I dont like that its shares are effectively controlled by a couple two people, they can railroad anything through.
It does have its good points though, mainly cashflow and earnings growth, but mobile rollout and declining NBN margin will test that, i despite my concerns i would probably consider TPG a buy at $4.00
The numbers i mentioned before, i was trying to match their Revenue against avg(SIO)*ARPU, but its missing ARPU for iiNet Other. I tried to reverse enegineer the ARPU for other but it would need to be $136/m. Im probably missing something, or calculating it wrong.
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