Ann: FY18 Financial Results Presentation, page-16

Happy to discuss this further probably under the Commodities/Gold thread. Let me know if you want to open one...

In short I think macro and demographic cycles analyst (like HD) loose sight of the tree from the forest (the other way around). They really have to factor in a few things:

1. The amount of investment vehicles competing against Gold (physical) have increased by many factors. Where previously everyone mostly saved in money which prior to 1971 basically means you are saving in physical Gold by default (and probably without realising). In the current trend people are saving in investment vehicles that is not even considered an asset but in fact just a contracts. This hurts gold demand...
2. If we are to believe the PM pumpers then it is really not the POG that changes but the demand for currency. Outlandish as it seems there is some truth to this. Let's look at EVN as an example. It cost EVN an average $797 to produce 1oz of Gold. One would think that increasing the supply of gold in the market counters the demand for currency. The effect is actually totally different the demand for currency actually increases the more gold we want to produce. EVN needs that $797 first to create 1 oz of gold. This creates an Ouroboros effect...the more gold we produce the more currency demand is required.
3. USD/Oil/Gold hegemony ... need I say more?
4. etc... many more reasons

If we look at gold's polarity say, Having Harry Dent advocating $800 USD gold and say Jim Rickards for $10,000 gold... the true value is probably somewhere in the middle of those figures. Not to say that it cannot swing between in a matter of a few weeks. History have shown to do this during crisis.. a.k.a when real estate and stocks deflate rapidly