The FUD around the sustainability and future of the business given the RC, unhappy franchisees etc will not last forever, IMO it’ll be resolved as soon as guidance for FY20 starts coming in, as it’ll show whether the $16.5m is the bottom from which the business can rebound, or if the decline continues.
So I’d say it’s an exit point if you ultimately believe the business is in terminal decline, otherwise if it rebounds then I can’t imagine it trading at 10% yield, even at 12c dividends (and its 12.7c actually on the forecast 16.5m cash NPAT in 2019) it can easily be pushing back into $2 levels.
So ultimately it’s about whether you believe the business is salvageable and whether the management can pull it off (and of course whether you’re prepared to hold long term), personally I’m pretty impressed by what they’re doing and how honest they have been admitting to the issues and coming up with a plan to address them. The opposite of the RFG debacle IMO, which I think is still contributing heavily to the negative sentiment around MOC.
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