There has been an increase in short positions. They have tripled since the 5th November. That will have contributed to the downward SP.
Short percentage on ECX has been around 4% for the last few months. Maybe they have picked up the scent on MMS as well.
I hold ECX so I would be happy to see the shorts go but Morgan Stanley hold over 5% and they do short position lending.
I am sure shorters will also be happy if MMS have to up their percentage bid to get ECX due to the lower SP as that will most likely push the SP down more. Bit of a vicious cycle unless another INSTO buyer wades in on the bargain SP.
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