AX1 accent group limited

Some thoughts in no particular order ... - I’ve got EPS beating...

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    Some thoughts in no particular order ...

    - I’ve got EPS beating consensus by 10% (8.8c vs 8.0 consensus) however, SP was already above consensus TP of $1.42 ... and even the high of $1.47. Therefore, it beat the forecasts but some of this was already in the SP ... so it won’t go anywhere for a few days until the analysts upgrade their forecasts up.
    - Expansion overseas has worried me as they wouldn’t have exclusivity across their brands and I don’t think the Lovisa model for jewellery is going to work for shoes. Therefore the narrowing of this expansion to focus on Platapus (presumable in countries where they can get exclusively) is a real positive for me.
    - cash conversion is very positive (as noted by many above)!!
    - Having the ability to react to the latest fashions by closing a old/tired shoe brand store and opening the latest fashion brand is an amazing retail model. Shopping centres owners love this updating (as it helps makes the whole centre fresh), AX1 doesn’t have to pay lease break costs ... as they just put another one of their brands in, and I suspect they negotiate hard on rent, eg. We’ll update the store, we’ll extend the term ... but we only want to pay xx in rent. The comment that they are willing to walk away from high rents is as much a message to shareholders as it is to centre operators.
    - I didn’t see the absolute sales info for digital (will have to look closer later). This is obviously still small - but it’s also a way of reducing turnover rents and therefore increasing margins (sale credited to digital even tho its picked up in store). This does however shift the reporting of sales away from the store so YOY same store growth looks lower than it really is.

    And ... gotta love an increased dividend when there’s still plenty of cash on the books to grow the business!

    Others thoughts/comments on these themes? Others thoughts of themes good/bad spotted?
    Last edited by SimonGr: 28/08/18
 
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