The danger is that it will no longer be profitable.
Hy underlying ebitda 2.8m
Fy underlying ebitda 3.6m
Firstly thats only 800k ebitda in what is supposedly the bigger season (winter). Lets be generous and annualise it to 1.6m p.a. thats 10x pe, no longer considered cheap.
Secondly subscription division has gone down and down and down. It will eventually not make any profit, hence the full writedown of assets. Otherwise the auditors will no way allow them to write it down.
Thirdly, they consider q and a be a mature business. Have you noticed that they havent provided a graph for q and a messages in this update? I suspect the results are already in decline, as there was a hint in the first half of the in the messages (declining in 2nd q vs 1st). If this is the case there is a real problem.
Fourth: Net debt has not moved at all from hy to fy. Say its because of timing and they will get the 800k in ebitda. By debt due date they will have 1.6m cash vs net debt of 1m. So they wont have sufficient working capital. What happens then? Another loan and more financing expenses?
Sure there is the crowd media in the growth area. But it has not been proven to be a profitable business and currently requires investment.
Might sound negative since i sold out but thats the way i see it.
I was expecting continued q and a growth, a stablised track which provides at least 5m ebitda annually . If thats the case i would have been more than happy to hold as that means pe would be like 2x or 3x and they would have sufficient working capital by January next year to pay off debt. And any investment into crowd media would be justified and see it a bonus.
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