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Ann: FY19 Annual Report (with App 4E), page-21

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  1. 23,248 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1262
    In the report PNC highlight 3 possibilities to solve liquidity issues: sale of assets, refinance & equity issue.

    Potential impact of each

    Sale of assets
    PDL's are the obvious main asset totalling $249.8m.
    Short term borrowings are currently $169.4m
    So to clear 100% of the debt PNC would need to sell approx 67.8% of PDL's at book value.
    Cash generated from Liquidations in accounts for FY19 $120.8m, so a pro rata reduction in Liquidations would mean a reduction in cash of -$82.0m, that would have reduced Cashflow from operations in FY19 to -$30.4m
    With payments to suppliers & employees $55.3m PNC would need to slash it's workforce in more than half to breakeven.
    It would take the company 5-10+ years to recover to it's pre crisis level IMO.

    Refinance
    Assuming a 2% increase in finance costs on $169.4 after tax would reduce cashflow from operations by $2.4m.
    Cashflow per share in this case would fall to 77.6c, not a huge impact.
    Share price after initial turbulence should recover to a pre crisis level in 2-5 years IMO.

    Equity issue.
    To 100% cear the borrowings of $169.4m would require 84.7m shares to be issued assuming a price of $2.00 (arbitrary number). That's a 133.6% in shares in issue.
    Cashflow in operations of $51.6m would increase by $4.675 by eliminating interest charges & impact of tax to $56.3m.
    With 148.1m shares in issue that would reduce the cash flow per share to 38.0c a reduction of 53.3% on FY19. A huge hit for current shareholders, again a 5-10 year recovery period IMO.

    So as far as I can see unless the company refinances the current borrowing facilities shareholders are going to take a substantial hit unless there is a total takeover which doesn't appear to be on the cards.
 
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