Ann: FY19 Financial Report, Appendix 4E, briefing and webcast, page-31

@Exised I do agree on most points however the short-term trend that has been broken (steep yellow line in my chart) was very steep and unsustainable so that was never going to hold for very long.

It does appear to have found support yesterday at the 50% fib retrace level yesterday if we measure the rally that commenced in June and end a few weeks ago. This is a very important level and when taken in the context that the business is still in very good condition, I think this level may hold.

The US reported sharp drops and below consensus results for three key PMI indices: Services; Manufacturing; and the Composite. The Manufacturing PMI is now below 50 which indicates contraction. That hasn't happened for as long as the data I have goes back, which is 2013. And given that Service PMI missed consensus by a great deal, it could be that the next report is negative also. This certainly points to a US recession. Between the now infamous yield curve inversion and the economic data pointing to a recession, I think it's finally upon us.

Gold reacted but not exactly how I expected it to but after such an epic run on USD gold, it's not that surprising that most positions have already been taken. I guess the next leg up will come soon when the confirmation of recession is publicized (if it ever really is).

Back to SBM, if it seeks to find long term support, it could head considerably lower but that LT trend was based on a different business so I'm not sure it will eventuate as it would mean crushingly low valuations and we've already seen the market is prepared to support the price above those levels. If it does keep heading lower, I think it means there's something else at play. Would Vassie do another hugely dilutive raising to fund another acquisition? I don't think so - his head would roll. Is there a problem at one of the mines, if so, we'll find out shortly as that kind of info would be made public ASAP.

My guess is that we'll find support around 330 and have a few more days of volatility while we wait for further direction from the gold price.

I personally am trading this and buying for the LT account. It is risky but my strategy paid off when I went hard in the 250-260 range so I'm prepared for these risks again.

If I had to guess, I'd say there's a chance we bounce to tap on the 50EMA (343) before deciding on which way we go from there but the 50 is critical. Any time period shorter than 1d shows we're hugely oversold so traders may seize on this which may be what gets us our bounce.

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