Exactly. As I have outlined in previous posts over recent weeks, the TC contribution to ebitda is relatively small, and looking forward 2-3 years it won’t prevents growing eps and divi’s. the good news (which I think is not appreciated) is that: - TC doesn’t costs web anything, hence almost all revenue would go straight to ebitda; this means even if the revenue is lost, it doesn’t cause any operational cashflow negative effect because there are no sunken costs other than the last acquisition/ partnership costs. - any hotel stock not sold to TC can be sold through other channels so some of the revenue will be retained through other channels - TC is unlikely to completely go bankrupt, more likely to have a takeover but be delisted; this is bad for TC shareholders but the only damage to Web holders is the public image damage no actual financial loss as long as TC still trades and attracts customers to book hotels.
i added some at 12.00 and will happily add more for a medium term hold if it gets down to 11.00 at which it would be a great long term but price imho, but only long term not for a short term trader because the next 12 mo could be rocky.
the final note of caution is the broader one that if global economies struggle, this is clearly bad for tourism. I’m more cautious because of this than I am because of TC, so I’m seeking an extra margin of downside protection / safety which I think 11.00-11.50 provides, especially for a longer term horizon holder of 3-5 years.
WEB Price at posting:
$11.51 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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